Archives for October 31, 2018

Breeders’ Cup Analysis by Rich Nilsen

Crush the 2018 Cup!  All 14 Races Analyzed

15x NHC Qualifier Offers up Pace Scenarios, 5 Spot Plays w/ Expert Wagers, Top Selections and Analysis

Rich Nilsen, who has absolutely crushed some past big days, is back for both days of this year’s Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs, a track he knows inside and out.   Included in Nilsen’s report are top selections for all 5 juvenile stakes on Friday and all 9 stakes on Saturday (all 14 Breeders’ Cup races).

You receive Nilsen’s expert pace analysis, which is often the key to selecting the winner.   Nilsen has 5 Spot Plays on the two days.  He offers these best bets with his wagering strategies to attack these races.

Get every Breeders’ Cup race for BOTH days (Friday & Saturday) in one sheet!  

Download instantly to any type of device. Only $19.97

 

Highlights from Previous Breeders’ Cup Spot Play Winners!

$40.40 Spot Play Winner Work All Week with $1,064.70 Trifecta!

$29.40 Sprint Spot Play Winner Trinniberg with Cold $203.40 Exacta!

$15.80 Turf Sprint Spot Play Winner Mizdirection, keying $1,757.65 Pick-4 wager!

$13.00 F&M Turf Spot Play winner Dayathespa

$16.40 Turf Sprint Winner Bobby’s Kitten

$64.80 Exacta with Main Sequence over Flintshire in the Breeders’ Cup Turf

The list goes on and on!

Download today to any device (click to download)

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Rich Nilsen caught the horse racing bug at a young age when his father took him to the racetracks in New York. He eventually attended the University of Louisville Equine Business Program with the goal of making a career in the horse racing industry.

Nilsen has worked the past 26 years in the equine industry, serving most of those years as the Marketing Director for Brisnet.com and TwinSpires.com, the Official Wagering Site of the Kentucky Derby.

During his long tenure at the Churchill Downs-owned properties, Nilsen managed the successful Players’ Pool syndicate, which pooled funds from the account wagering members to go after large Pick-6 carryovers. During Nilsen’s leadership, the Players’ Pool produced a significant profit for the members over the course of seven years. One of the best hits was when the Players’ Pool took down half of the Pick-6 pool on Kentucky Derby Day 2007, with a gross return of over $500,000.  The Pool had several other hits over $250,000.

The $2.8 Million National Handicapping Championship (NHC) is the premier horse racing tournament in the nation. It is basically horse racing’s version of the World Series of Poker, with the main difference being that players cannot buy their way into the NHC. Players can only win their way in via tournaments held throughout the country. Nilsen is one of the top participants in the history of the event, having qualified 15 times. He was the first player, and one of only a handful, to finish in the top 10 at the NHC twice.

Nilsen is the founder and editor of AGameofSkill.com, a site devoted to horse racing education and promotion.  He only provides selections like this on a few select days of the day.

 

About My Analysis

In this comprehensive yet concise report, I provide selections for all 14 Breeders’ Cup races for both days, as well as pace scenario analysis which is absolutely vital for predicting the outcomes of these events.

Spot Plays are my best bets and key wagering horses for the big weekend. Picking your spots is key to profiting on the races, especially when it comes to the Breeders’ Cup. The opportunities are plentiful but you improve your chances by selecting key spot plays and focusing most of your bets on those plays.

Set aside a budget for these two days and be sure to have plenty of ammunition for the bigger of the two days, Saturday. Best of luck!

Nilsen’s Breeders’ Cup Analysis

 

2018 Results:

3 Top winners from 5 BC races on Friday, a 60% Win Rate

Spot Play City Of Light scored big in the Dirt Mile, keying the winning daily double into the next race.

Breeders’ Cup 2018 Head2Head Wagers

Doncaster horses racingLOUISVILLE, Ky. (October 31, 2018) Breeders’ Cup, which last week announced several new wagers to its betting menu for both Friday and Saturday of the November 2-3 World Championships at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., has released the Head2Head (H2H) wagering matchups.

Click here for the chosen H2H matchups: http://www.breederscup.com/wager/head2head

All told, seven Head2Head (H2H) wagers, with three offered Friday and four Saturday, provide seasoned bettors and potential newcomers an opportunity to handicap intrarace matchups in the hopes of unearthing strong plays in a sports betting type of format. The $10 minimum wager, with just a 10% takeout, is designed to offer matchups with a theoretical 50/50 chance of winning, that should attract seasoned bettors, but could also in turn appeal to sports bettors, as they are essentially being given an even-money proposition, yet with no points spread involved.

The matchups, listed below, will have a predominantly USA vs. European feel and consist of both individual horses against each other, as well as entire groups from both countries.

Friday, Nov. 2 –
Race 6 – Juvenile Fillies Turf: USA (1) vs Europe (2)
Race 8 – Juvenile Turf: USA (1) vs. Europe (2)
Race 9 – Sentient Jet Juvenile: Complexity (1) vs. Game Winner (2)

Saturday, Nov. 3 –
Race 6 – Maker’s Mark Filly and Mare Turf: USA (1) vs. Europe (2)
Race 8 – Mile: USA (1) vs. Europe (2)
Race 10 – Longines Turf: Enable (GB) (1) vs. the Field (2)
Race 11 – Classic: Mendelssohn (1) vs. Thunder Snow (2)

All seven matchups offer plenty of pros and cons for each side that should attract betting dollars from handicappers and fans alike, as Friday’s juvenile turf races figure wide open, with serious contenders from both the USA and Europe, while the Sentient Jet Juvenile itself has a great West Coast-East Coast battle between a pair of undefeated colts, Complexity and Game Winner. Saturday is much the same, as the Maker’s Mark Filly & Mare Turf and Mile are riddled with contenders from both sides of the pond, while the immortal European filly Enable will go it alone in the Turf, while tackling the entire field. The Classic will pit European-based Mendelssohn and Thunder Snow against each other, but US bettors and Kentuckians are familiar with both, as they each ran in the Kentucky Derby and in the US on multiple occasions.

Each Head2Head wager will consist of two betting interests, number 1 or 2. USA will be the 1 interest and Europe will be the 2 interest for all USA vs Europe wagers. Similarly, Complexity will be the 1 interest and Gamer Winner the 2 interest, Enable the 1 interest and the Field the 2 interest, and Mendelssohn the 1 interest and Thunder Snow the 2 interest. In Head2Head wagers the winner will be determined by the horse that finishes the finish line first and does not necessarily need to be the horse that wins the race.

The Head2Head matchups are an important spoke in a wheel that sees a plethora of new and exciting wagers that are sure to bolster an already tremendous wagering product the Championships offer. A newly added 50-cent late Pick5 on both Friday (deemed the “Future Stars Pick5) and Saturday, with a 15% takeout and a guaranteed pool of $1 million and $2 million, respectively, lead the way and figure to easily surpass their guarantees, while a Jackpot Super Hi-5 that could spurn a carryover pool in the millions is also expected to be well received. Couple those with special daily double wagering that links a Friday race to a Saturday race, with a $1 minimum and 22% takeout, and an already loaded wagering menu becomes that much more appealing—and potentially lucrative.

Modernized Treasury/IRS Rules for Wagering a Huge Success

The United States Supreme Court building in Washington DC.

LEXINGTON, Ky. (Wednesday, October 31, 2018)—In the first year of operations under newly modernized U.S. Treasury and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) regulations, there was a $307 million reduction in the amount  of winning pari-mutuel wagers reported to the IRS using form W-2G, according to  statistics released today by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA). This reduction in the amount of winning wagers reported was the result of a dramatic 89% decline in the number of winning tickets flagged for IRS reporting. The declines also led to a $35 million reduction in the amount withheld from bettors’ winnings. The new regulations, which took effect Sept. 28, 2017, recast the Treasury’s definition of the “amount of the wager” to include the entire amount wagered into a specific pari-mutuel pool by an individual rather than the prior IRS standard of using only the base amount of the winning wager.

Based on data provided by CHRIMS, which conducts settlements and other services for many of the nation’s pari-mutuel operators, individual racetracks, and the two largest U.S. totalizator companies—AmTote and United Tote—the NTRA estimates the following nationwide impacts over the first 12 months of operation under the new regulations (10/1/2017 – 9/30/2018 vs. 10/1/2016 – 9/30/2017):

  • The gross amount of winning wagers reported to the IRS on Form W-2G declined $307,700,000 (82%), from approximately $374,500,000 to about $66,800,000;
  • Federal taxes withheld from winning wagers and sent to the IRS declined $35,400,000 (82%), from $43,200,000 to $7,800,000; and
  • The actual number of IRS tickets flagged for W-2G reporting by the IRS declined nearly 89%, from approximately 235,100 tickets to only about 26,350 winning tickets.

From a percentage standpoint, the impacts were equally positive for horseplayers, pari-mutuel operators and horsemen across the country—regardless of the size of the racetrack market. The new regulations also provided positive impacts to advance deposit wagering (ADW) operators and their customers.

“The drastic reduction in the number of winning tickets requiring reporting and withholding is consequential in several ways,” said NTRA President and Chief Executive Officer, Alex Waldrop. “Under the old regulations, it was not uncommon for horseplayers to feel the thrill of ‘winning’ only to have their proceeds reported and/or withheld by the IRS. The old regulations were both unfair and a burden to all involved. A significant overreach by the IRS has been corrected thanks to fair-minded officials at the U.S. Treasury.”

There are numerous specific examples of events where the industry benefited from the new regulations.

On-track at the host venues of the Triple Crown races—Derby Day, Preakness Day and Belmont Stakes Day—the combined number of winning tickets required by the IRS to be reported on Form W-2G fell 96%, with the gross amount of winning wagers required to be reported falling by 87% and the amount of money withheld from pari-mutuel winnings falling 71%. It is likely that similar results were realized nationwide.

On-track impacts were most pronounced at Pimlico on Preakness Day, where the number of tickets requiring reporting fell 99% and the number of tickets requiring Federal withholding fell 100% because there were no winning tickets at Pimlico on Preakness Day that triggered Federal withholding.

On-track at the 40-day 2018 Saratoga Meeting, the number of winning tickets flagged for processing by the IRS fell 96%, the gross amount of winnings required to be reported fell 94% and the amount of money withheld from winning bettors fell 91%.

Nilsen's analysis

“The new regulations have been enormously beneficial to every sector of our business,” Waldrop continued. “They would never have transpired without the bipartisan support we received on Capitol Hill and the unwavering support of every segment of the horse racing industry, including thousands of customers who answered our call to action.  Best of all, we will continue to realize the positive impacts from these regulations for many years to come.”

For more than a decade, the NTRA and others promoted legislation to modernize pari-mutuel withholding and reporting. The industry argued that as pari-mutuel wagering increasingly shifts toward exotic bet types like Exactas, Trifectas and Pick 4s, more winning wagers are being reported and more winnings withheld, creating an unfair burden on bettors, pari-mutuel operators and state and federal governments.

Then in 2014, the NTRA developed a new strategy that relied on regulatory, not statutory relief from outdated regulations. Following the new strategy, the NTRA was able to convince the Treasury Department and the IRS to expand the definition of the phrase “amount of the wager” to include the total amount bet on a single ticket (or through an ADW) by an individual into a specific pari-mutuel pool. This one simple change in the Treasury regulations that took effect on September 28, 2017 has led to the significant benefits reported today.

Through September of this year, U.S. wagering has increased 3.95% ($336,724,709) overall while average wagering per race day has increased 7.67% ($180,231), according to statistics provided by Equibase.