by Glen S. for AGameofSkill.com
Sharp horse players are always looking for value. Are you? It is tough enough to make money at the races, so betting underlays means you need to pick even more winners. The easiest way to find value is when the wagering consensus on the race, in your perspective, is incorrect.
I find the best way to find value is by uncovering overbet, vulnerable favorites.
Here are a few horse racing angles I always like to watch for to bet against:
-Maidens that finished 2nd and are now dropping a level.
Why would you drop a horse to a lower level when you just beat everyone at a higher level. The only way I may consider betting this horse is if the higher level was really slow time and the trainer knows that he needs to drop
- 28 days of no activity.
When a horse has not raced or worked out in over 28 days, I find this is a bad sign. Why wouldn’t you at least work your horse out if you can’t find a race for him to enter? At “A” tracks this is a very strong angle, “B and C” tracks the top trainers still get away with it and may even hide a few works from time to time. I still would not make a strong bet on them.
-Dropping a horse after a good performance.
Why drop when the horse is competitive at a higher level while posting strong numbers? Sure the top trainers will run the horse down the others’ throat and you need to be aware of that. The poor trainers are poor oftentimes because they don’t have the stock to win. However, if a drop down off a good performance is trained by a weak (low %) trainer, then the class drop surely means a sore animals. Small barns don’t have the luxury of “playing poker” like the big outfits, e.g. David Jacobson.
-First time front bandages.
This is strong when a horse was running well and is dropping. Also a horse that has had a good career and not worn them before, especially when the horse will be the favorite.
When these “bet against” angles occur, really take the time to find something to take a shot on. You will get your value. Maybe you will not win, but will feel much better knowing by picking a winner you will be rewarded. A few ways to play the race would be box a few horses in an exacta or take a bunch in a rolling pick three. Consider even a bet in the win, place or show pool on your choice of the race.
Go find your value, it’s out there.